A few weeks ago, Azerbaijan won a war in just 24 hours: it forced the armed forces of the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh to surrender and the civilian authorities to proclaim the dissolution of the administration that governed them. A country that had unilaterally declared its independence and had acted as such for decades was now making a declaration of self-dissolution, compelled by the occupation forces’ weapons. In the 1990s, Armenia had won the war against Azerbaijan. Three decades later, the tables have turned.
From the field of peacebuilding, we insist that social and political conflicts cannot be resolved with arms – that dialogue and negotiation are always better than war. In the light of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, but also of other recent wars such as those in Syria, Afghanistan and Ethiopia, perhaps this argument should be qualified: wars can be won militarily, but only at a high cost in human lives, especially innocent civilians. Moreover, a victory tends to be temporary because it feeds the spiral of grievances and the thirst for revenge.
On Saturday, 7 October, Hamas killed more than 200 Israeli civilians in its military incursion. This is a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law, the law that regulates what is and what is not allowed in war. At the same time, Hamas has put the entire population of Gaza at risk because the Israeli government’s response also violates international humanitarian law. In fact, for decades, Israel has ignored multiple United Nations resolutions regarding the occupied Palestinian territories and treatment of the Palestinian population.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is probably the most complex in the world. And, unlike most other clashes, it has an extraordinarily polarizing effect between those who support Palestine and those who support Israel. Everyone worldwide is full of reasons to criticize one side or the other. And everyone tends to keep quiet about their contradictions when the human rights of one side are violated by the other.
The conflict also highlights the limitations of international law and the double standards in international relations: Ukraine has the right to defend itself against Russia’s attack, but when the Palestinians defend themselves against Israel’s invasion, they are called terrorists. At the same time, it is utterly paradoxical that the main defenders of the Palestinian cause are authoritarian regimes such as those of Syria and Iran, which are jailing and killing their people.
The conflict is complex because it dates back to long ago, long before the creation of the State of Israel, and because it has a direct relationship with the deepest part of Jewish, Christian and Muslim religious identities. But also because of its regional and global dimension: in a multipolar world, where the weak rules of the game are increasingly ignored, it is easy for a local conflict to escalate and become a regional and even global conflict.
The theory of conflict resolution indicates the need to overcome a zero-sum dynamic, where some win and others lose. Unfortunately, all attempts to create win-win conditions – mainly the idea of Israeli and Palestinian states side by side and in harmony – have so far failed. For the moment, Israel is winning, with more economic and military power and more international support (even from a growing number of Arab countries that are former allies of the Palestinians). But, as we have recently learned in Azerbaijan, military victories can eventually backfire.
There is no formula for resolving this conflict. It is possibly unresolvable, and perhaps the best we can hope for is to reduce the reasons and the power to violate human rights. Everyone has responsibilities, but in an asymmetric conflict, the actors with the most influence have the most significant responsibility. If they don’t make a move, the same dynamic will continue, and thus, the crisis will only get worse. A situation where, in the long run, they all lose. We all lose.
Kristian Herbolzheimer, Director of the International Catalan Institute for Peace (ICIP)
Article published in the “Catalunya Plural” newspaper on October 8, 2023